Macro

Stocks are losing their edge over bonds, in an ominous sign for the market

Mixed signals

MIXED

Plays out —Conviction —Expected impact —

How to read this

Plays out — when the earliest effect is expected to hit the market. Shorter = more urgent.
Conviction — the model's average confidence across every mechanism and ripple. 0% = guessing, 100% = certain. An average, so a single high-confidence path can be buried.
Expected impact — average size of the expected moves. 0% = noise, 100% = outsized. Also an average.
Conflicts — instruments where signals from different asset classes disagree. Tap the chip to see which ones.

Desk note· Summary

Stocks are losing their appeal compared to bonds, which could lead to a rotation out of equities into safer assets over the next few days. This shift is likely to push the S&P 500 (SPX) down by 1-2% while boosting bond ETFs like TLT. A weaker dollar may follow, which could support silver (XAGUSD) as a safe haven. If you're watching markets, keep an eye on SPX and TLT for signs of this rotation.

Transmission· Why this matters

1 PATHS · BY CONV

Cross-asset· What’s affected

16 INSTRUMENTS · TAP TO EXPAND

InstrumentTypeDir24h %Why it movesHorizonConviction!

Regime watch· Conditions to watch

CONFIRM · INVALIDATE

conditional

Regime watch · risk-off

This mechanism's direction is conditional on the regime holding

Causal map· The full picture

Tap any node to open its details and read the reasoning behind each link.

1 mechanisms · 15 ripples · 7 edges

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