Geopolitical

Airlines spent 56.4% more on jet fuel in month after Iran war started, U.S. government says

Mixed signals

MIXED

Plays out —Conviction —Expected impact —

How to read this

Plays out — when the earliest effect is expected to hit the market. Shorter = more urgent.
Conviction — the model's average confidence across every mechanism and ripple. 0% = guessing, 100% = certain. An average, so a single high-confidence path can be buried.
Expected impact — average size of the expected moves. 0% = noise, 100% = outsized. Also an average.
Conflicts — instruments where signals from different asset classes disagree. Tap the chip to see which ones.

Desk note· Summary

Airlines are spending 56.4% more on jet fuel after the Iran war started, which is a clear sign of a severe oil supply shock. This will almost certainly push oil prices (BRENT) higher over the next week as physical supply tightens and geopolitical risks grow. At the same time, gold (XAUUSD) is strongly expected to rise as investors seek a safe haven from both higher inflation and a slowing economy. If you're watching markets, keep an eye on gold and oil prices this week.

Transmission· Why this matters

3 PATHS · BY CONV

Regime watch· Conditions to watch

CONFIRM · INVALIDATE

conditional

Regime watch · geopolitical-risk

This mechanism's direction is conditional on the regime holding

conditional

Regime watch · inflationary

This mechanism's direction is conditional on the regime holding

confirm

EWJ

Mentioned without a clear direction — watch for confirmation

Causal map· The full picture

Tap any node to open its details and read the reasoning behind each link.

11 mechanisms · 35 ripples · 35 edges

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Airlines spent 56.4% more on jet fuel in month after Iran war started, U.S. government says

Desk note· Summary

Transmission· Why this matters

Regime watch· Conditions to watch

Desk note· Summary

Transmission· Why this matters

Regime watch· Conditions to watch

Cross-asset· What’s affected