Macro

FinancialJuice: US Treasury expects to further increase offering sizes of shorter-dated benchmark bills.

Mixed signals

MIXED

Plays out —Conviction —Expected impact —

How to read this

Plays out — when the earliest effect is expected to hit the market. Shorter = more urgent.
Conviction — the model's average confidence across every mechanism and ripple. 0% = guessing, 100% = certain. An average, so a single high-confidence path can be buried.
Expected impact — average size of the expected moves. 0% = noise, 100% = outsized. Also an average.
Conflicts — instruments where signals from different asset classes disagree. Tap the chip to see which ones.

Desk note· Summary

The US Treasury plans to increase the supply of short-term bills, which is likely to push short-term yields higher over the next few days. This makes short-dated Treasuries more attractive and raises the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest. Meanwhile, TIPS auction sizes are steady, signaling stable inflation expectations and no additional pressure on real yields. If you're watching gold, keep an eye on XAUUSD this week.

Transmission· Why this matters

3 PATHS · BY CONV

Cross-asset· What’s affected

13 INSTRUMENTS · TAP TO EXPAND

InstrumentTypeDir24h %Why it movesHorizonConviction!

Regime watch· Conditions to watch

CONFIRM · INVALIDATE

conditional

Regime watch · hawkish

This mechanism's direction is conditional on the regime holding

confirm

TIPS

Mentioned without a clear direction — watch for confirmation

confirm

10Y breakeven

Mentioned without a clear direction — watch for confirmation

Causal map· The full picture

Tap any node to open its details and read the reasoning behind each link.

3 mechanisms · 10 ripples · 10 edges

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