FOMC

Surging gas prices are hitting lower income households harder, New York Fed study shows

Mixed signals

MIXED

Plays out —Conviction —Expected impact —

How to read this

Plays out — when the earliest effect is expected to hit the market. Shorter = more urgent.
Conviction — the model's average confidence across every mechanism and ripple. 0% = guessing, 100% = certain. An average, so a single high-confidence path can be buried.
Expected impact — average size of the expected moves. 0% = noise, 100% = outsized. Also an average.
Conflicts — instruments where signals from different asset classes disagree. Tap the chip to see which ones.

Desk note· Summary

A New York Fed study shows that surging gas prices are hitting lower-income households hardest, which is likely to weaken consumer spending over the next week. This could slow GDP growth and hurt stocks like the S&P 500 (SPY), as consumers cut back on non-essentials. At the same time, there's a chance gold (XAUUSD) could rise as recession fears drive safe-haven buying, while the US dollar (DXY) may strengthen. If you're watching markets, keep an eye on consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) and gold this week.

Transmission· Why this matters

1 PATHS · BY CONV

Cross-asset· What’s affected

12 INSTRUMENTS · TAP TO EXPAND

InstrumentTypeDir24h %Why it movesHorizonConviction!

Risk flags· What could go wrong

CONFIRM · INVALIDATE

conflict

XAUUSD — tier-A divergence

Cross-asset signal divergence flagged — size positions with care

conditional

Regime watch · growth-optimism

This mechanism's direction is conditional on the regime holding

conditional

Regime watch · inflationary

This mechanism's direction is conditional on the regime holding

Causal map· The full picture

Tap any node to open its details and read the reasoning behind each link.

1 mechanisms · 16 ripples · 8 edges

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