Macro

FinancialJuice: EIA Gasoline Inventories Actual -2.504M (Forecast -2.606M, Previous -6.075M)

Mixed signals

MIXED

Plays out —Conviction —Expected impact —

How to read this

Plays out — when the earliest effect is expected to hit the market. Shorter = more urgent.
Conviction — the model's average confidence across every mechanism and ripple. 0% = guessing, 100% = certain. An average, so a single high-confidence path can be buried.
Expected impact — average size of the expected moves. 0% = noise, 100% = outsized. Also an average.
Conflicts — instruments where signals from different asset classes disagree. Tap the chip to see which ones.

Desk note· Summary

Oil prices are likely to fall over the next few hours because the latest EIA data shows weaker demand for crude and distillates than expected. While gasoline demand held steady, the overall picture points to less economic activity, which is weighing on crude. If you're watching oil, keep an eye on WTI and Brent prices in the next few sessions.

Transmission· Why this matters

3 PATHS · BY CONV

Cross-asset· What’s affected

12 INSTRUMENTS · TAP TO EXPAND

InstrumentTypeDir24h %Why it movesHorizonConviction!

Regime watch· Conditions to watch

CONFIRM · INVALIDATE

conditional

Regime watch · growth-optimism

This mechanism's direction is conditional on the regime holding

confirm

SPY

Mentioned without a clear direction — watch for confirmation

confirm

WTI_SPREAD

Mentioned without a clear direction — watch for confirmation

Causal map· The full picture

Tap any node to open its details and read the reasoning behind each link.

5 mechanisms · 13 ripples · 13 edges

Loading causal graph…