Geopolitical

FinancialJuice: Trump tells NY Post: It is ‘too soon’ to prep for Iran peace signing.

Mixed signals

MIXED

Plays out —Conviction —Expected impact —

How to read this

Plays out — when the earliest effect is expected to hit the market. Shorter = more urgent.
Conviction — the model's average confidence across every mechanism and ripple. 0% = guessing, 100% = certain. An average, so a single high-confidence path can be buried.
Expected impact — average size of the expected moves. 0% = noise, 100% = outsized. Also an average.
Conflicts — instruments where signals from different asset classes disagree. Tap the chip to see which ones.

Desk note· Summary

Trump's comment that it's 'too soon' to prepare for an Iran peace deal means oil prices are likely to rise over the next few days, as the risk of supply disruption remains. This could also push the US dollar higher as investors seek safe havens, but gold might dip slightly as immediate safe-haven demand fades. If you're watching oil, keep an eye on Brent and WTI this week.

Transmission· Why this matters

1 PATHS · BY CONV

Cross-asset· What’s affected

14 INSTRUMENTS · TAP TO EXPAND

InstrumentTypeDir24h %Why it movesHorizonConviction!

Risk flags· What could go wrong

CONFIRM · INVALIDATE

conflict

4 instruments flagged — cross-asset divergence, size accordingly

AUDUSD · DXY · GBPUSD · NZDUSD

Causal map· The full picture

Tap any node to open its details and read the reasoning behind each link.

1 mechanisms · 20 ripples · 13 edges

Loading causal graph…